“The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions.” – Seth Klarman

One of the more unnerving parts of being an investor is experiencing the market pullback or market correction. Watching your investments fall by 10% (or more) is undeniably stressful, but the truth is: these events are as cyclical as the market itself, as long as there’s a stock market, there are going to be corrections. So, what can you do about it?

Humans hate losing more than they love winning, and for this reason, mistakes are often made when the market starts to dip. Just because market corrections are cyclical, doesn’t mean they’re predictable. Trying to time the market won’t work either, it’s impossible to know how long these things will last, how far the market will drop, or how quickly it will recover.

According to a table created by Merrill, timing the market could prove to be more damaging than holding, aka not touching your investments at all. Merrill evaluated the growth of $1,000 to see what happens when you leave an investment untouched over a 20-year period (Row 1); when you pull it out during the top 10 performing months (Row 2); and when you pull it out during the top 20 performing months (Row 3).

The Risk of Missing Out

	1990-2019	2000-2019	2010-2019
[1] Untouched	$17,281	$3,242	$3,567
[2] Miss 10 top-performing months	$7,000	$1,380	$1,723
[3] Miss 20 top-performing months	$3,363	$722	$1,097

As you can see from the chart above the best overall strategy is leaving your $1,000 investment untouched for as many years as possible.

The fact of the matter is that the longer you’re investing in the market, the more likely you’ll experience a drop. The question is: how will the market correction affect you? Well, there are three different potential outcomes: 1.) You’re negatively impacted by it, 2.) There is no lasting impact on your portfolio, 3.) You actually benefit from the market correction. The outcome is largely up to you, but I’m guessing you’d like it to be outcome three and would at least accept outcome two.

Let’s go over the ways to prepare for, and take advantage of, a market correction so the next time one comes around you’ll be able to benefit from it.

Best Practice #1: Reduce Panic, Increase Planning

As with everything in life, making rash decisions while panicking leads to mistakes. Unfortunately, after decades of watching negative headlines create market volatility, combined with the increasingly hysteric nature of modern-day journalism, it can be tough not to live in a perpetual state of panic these days. You should not allow this panic to translate into how you do your financial planning. Do not make rash decisions in place of planned decisions.

To reduce panic, you must equip yourself with information. Luckily, there are plenty of cases analyzing years of data which can help investors gain perspective on market corrections. For example, when looking at post-World War II market declines, you can see that an overwhelming majority of dips occur in the 5-10% range and take about a month to recover from. This means that if you’re experiencing a dip in your portfolio, there is a non-negligible chance that you’ll recover your losses in a month or so.

Additionally, any decline between 5-20% also only takes a few months to recover from, while a decline between 20-40% takes a little over a year to recover from—this data demonstrates that patience is your friend when it comes to the market.

DECLINES

%	#	Avg %	Avg Length (Mo.)	Avg Recover Time (Mo.)
5-10	84	7	1	1
10-20	29	14	4	4
20-40	9	28	11	14
40+	3	51	23	58

(source)

Obviously, all this data is gathered retrospectively after there’s been time to digest the decline but still, these figures provide a powerful perspective and encouragement. There’s no need to panic when you hear rumors of a market correction looming.

Best Practice #2: Diversify Your Portfolio

It’s not a question of if a market correction is coming, the question is when. Having cash in hand and a list of stocks you’ve been wanting to buy can turn a stressful time into an exciting one. A market correction is the perfect time to diversify your portfolio and an opportunity to buy in at lower rates. Think of it as a sale.

There are a few things to consider while you’re reevaluating your portfolio:

• Consider your stock/bond mix. It’s always good to have a mix of cash, equity, and fixed income. The amount you have invested in each category largely depends on where you are in life, as well as your long-term/short-term financial goals. Market fluctuations shouldn’t cause you to move all your money into bonds just to avoid risk, but should instead be used as an opportunity to see if the reason you purchased certain stocks are valid in regards to your lifestyle.

• Reevaluate your stock allocation. Using the cyclical nature of the stock market to your advantage can help you research which sectors you’d like to move into, and which ones are no longer useful to your financial goals. Overall, it’s best to broadly diversify your stocks, but with so many sectors to choose from, it can be hard to figure out where to invest. Using a market pullback to invest in some exciting sectors can help you take full advantage of the recovery.

Checking in with your portfolio during a market correction is the best way to prepare to make smart money moves when the market recovers.

Best Practice #3: Work with a trusted advisor

Having someone in your corner with an unbiased view will help immensely when it comes to harnessing market corrections to your advantage.  Our team has loads of experience with market corrections and is less likely to be emotionally triggered by the twists and turns of the market. Plus, with more than 250 years of combined experience, our team can help separate panic and emotion from financial decisions.

Your financial advisor will also be able to review both short-term and long-term goals, to give you options which complement your risk tolerance. They will provide you with a roadmap to help you from getting lost during turbulent times in the market.

Our firm has more than 30 years of experience in helping clients. I’ve seen every kind of market and every kind of reaction to it. There have been dozens of events in the past year that have been deemed “unprecedented” and scared people into thinking things were “different this time.” While I don’t want to downplay the tumultuousness of these times, I do want to reassure you that just because things feel unnaturally difficult, doesn’t mean that we can’t base our actions on what has worked in the past. The events may be different, but they always yield the same cause and effect.

I have experienced, first hand, almost 35 years of enormous societal changes, both amazing and horrendous. Even though the cyclical market is hard to pin down, and impossible to time, the fundamental financial decisions that add up to sound investments are not. Our team is here for you, along with our decades of experience, to help make sense of what’s the best financial plan for your personal vision.

Randy Carver, CRPC^®, CDFA^®, is the president and founder of Carver Financial Services, Inc., and is also a registered principal with Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Randy has more than 32 years of experience in the financial services business. Carver Financial Services, Inc. was established in 1990 and is one of the largest independent financial services offices in the country, managing $2.2 billion in assets for clients globally, as of August 2021. Randy and his team, work with individuals who are in financial transition as a result of divorce, retirement, or the sale of a business. You may reach Randy at randy.carver@raymondjames.com.

Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website’s users and/or members.

It’s happened to all of us one way or another: You suddenly receive an email saying that your credit card information has been compromised. You need to contact the bank to verify your information due to suspicious activity.

Or you get a call that your grandkid is in jail and they need bail money as soon as possible.

Maybe it’s good news – you just “won” the Publisher’s Clearing House Sweepstakes and they just need your account number to wire you the money.

These are all examples of real-life scams. As technology becomes more sophisticated, so do scammers. It’s getting more difficult to discern between legitimate communication and nefarious hackers trying to rob you of your money.

There are many companies dedicated to stopping these types of scams; however, fraud can be hard to combat. One reason for this is because the victims are too embarrassed to report the crime.

Let’s first walk through important information you should know about cyber scams and frauds. Then, we’ll take a look at how you can avoid them. Finally, we’ll go over a few simple tactics to use if you’re the victim of fraud.

Fraud is Common

Before evaluating ways to protect yourself and your money against digital robbery, it’s important to note that this is a common, widespread problem faced by people all over the world.

According to a study conducted by the Centre for Counter Fraud Studies at the University of Portsmouth, 65- to 74-year-olds are 54 times more likely to be victims of fraud or computer scams than they are to be physically robbed.

Newly released data shows that the Federal Trade Commission received more than 2.1 million fraud reports in 2020 alone. The same data found that imposter scams — when a fraudster pretends to be someone in need to trick you into sending them money — were the most common types of fraud reported to the agency. 1 in 5 individuals reportedly falling victim to this particular scam.

Here are some other statistics to be aware of:

2020 Top 3 Scam Categories

• Identity Theft
• Imposter Scams
• Online Shopping and Negative Reviews

2020 Reported Fraud Metrics

• Reports of Fraud: 2.2 Million
• Reported Losses: $3.4 Billion total
• Median Losses: $308 per reported incident

Fraud is a prevalent problem in today’s digital age. You can protect yourself and your savings by surrounding yourself with trusted professionals.

Now, we’ll cover different types of scams and how to identify them.

Cyber Scams and Red Flags

In order to protect yourself, it’s good to learn about the different types of scams out there. Here are some of the most common schemes:

Investment Fraud

Ponzi schemes, advance fee fraud, pyramid schemes, and market manipulation fraud are all examples of Investment Fraud. There’s probably a catch if someone you don’t know very well offers you an opportunity like:

• Low-or-no-risk investments with guaranteed returns
• Complex business strategies
• Unregistered securities

Elder Fraud

Elder Fraud criminals go after millions of elderly Americans each year. Con artists gain a victim’s trust, then when their victim’s guard is low, these criminals strike.

Some of the most common schemes include:

• Romance scams
• Sweepstakes/charity/lottery scams
• Tech support scams
• Grandparent scams — bad actors pose as a relative claiming to be in immediate financial need

Charity and Disaster Fraud

These scams take advantage of individuals’ benevolence and are especially rampant after high-profile disasters. Charity and Disaster Fraud is when a fake organization asks for donations to help combat a national emergency. It can also be as insidious as false contractors offering aid with the intent to run off with the insurance money.

COVID Scams

While COVID Scams live under the umbrella of “Charity and Disaster Fraud,” I want to highlight this particular scam. Scammers live off of vulnerability and fear – both of which are running high due to the pandemic.

Scammers try to obtain personal information like your social security number. If you receive an unsolicited phone call or message asking for sensitive information under the guise of COVID Aid, make sure to think critically. Always ask to know who is calling and which organization they’re representing.

Phishing/Ransomware Attacks

You may hear a lot about big companies experiencing “ransomware attacks” lately. Did you know that these attacks usually occur through an individual employee’s unprotected computer?

Phishing schemes and Ransomware attacks usually happen to individuals who are not vigilant with their software updates and internet use. Hackers access your data through corrupt files and links sent to your email inbox.

They’ve become so savvy that they can create email accounts and messages that impersonate brands and people you trust. This is why it’s very important to double and triple-check the spelling of email names, links, and websites before you click on them.

A good rule of thumb is that if an email, link, or file seems “off,” it probably is.

There are endless opportunities for those with bad intentions to take advantage of good people. The shame and silence surrounding being scammed just adds more fuel to the fire.

Ways to Avoid Being Scammed

Because so much scam and fraud now occur on the internet, it’s important to learn good “cyber-hygiene.” Be sure to keep your passwords protected and avoid clicking on compromised links.

Here are a few other things you can do to protect yourself from being scammed:

• Avoid opening email attachments (or hyperlinks) from people or brands you don’t know.
• Double-check to make sure links don’t have odd spelling. For example, you may get an email notification claiming someone you know tagged you in a “Facebook Photo” only to see later “Facebook” was spelled with three ‘o’s and you got phished.
• Never provide personal information in response to an unsolicited email, robocall, or robotext. In fact, it’s a good practice not to provide any personal information digitally. A trusted company will give you safe options for providing personal information including an in-person visit or calling them instead of them randomly calling you.
• Resist the pressure to act quickly. Scammers create a sense of urgency to produce fear and lure victims into immediate action. If you feel there is immediate danger to you or a loved one, it’s better to call the police.
• Be cautious of unsolicited phone calls, mailings, and door-to-door services offers.
• Never give or send any personally identifiable information, money, gift cards, checks, or wire information to unverified people or businesses.
• Trust your gut: If something seems a little off then it probably is.
• Anyone can make a sleek website these days. Before sending money to a company, charity, or person, double-check that there are legitimate reviews of their services.

Even with the best “cyber-hygiene,” you may still find yourself as the victim of a scam or fraud. Here are some steps to take if this happens.

Steps to Take if You’ve Been a Victim of Identity Fraud

Many cybercriminals are trying to get your identity. If they are able to get your social security information and your bank account numbers, there are endless opportunities for them to cause headaches and hassles.

Here are a few activities they can pursue with personal information:

• Filing state and federal tax returns in your name
• Getting unemployment
• Signing up for medical care and prescription drugs
• Taking on the identity of a deceased person

If you or a loved one are in this unfortunate position, here are steps to take back control:

1. Go to IdentityTheft.gov Here, you can report that your identity was stolen and also start to recover from this crime. This website will make sure you cover all your bases and are fully equipped with the information needed to move forward.
2. Check your credit reports to confirm you’ve had a fraudulent account opened in your name. If this is the case, immediately notify all four credit report organizations (Equifax, TransUnion, Experian, Innovis) of fraud. After these four organizations have been notified, freeze your reports. You can do this by phone, mail, or online.
3. File a report with your local police.
4. Notify the Office of the Inspector General (the Social Security Administration) via their fraud hotline at 1-800-269-0271 or submit a report online at oig.ssa.gov. You should also alert the Internal Revenue services at 1-800-829-0433.
5. Contact your state taxing agency. All agencies can provide instructions on how to address the situation.
6. Alert any organizations that have access to your finances, including financial advisors.
7. Finally, be sure to notify your medical insurance providers.

*Source: “Simple Safeguards: How to Stay Safe from Identity Theft and Cybercrime” by Jeff Lanza

It’s important to remember that there is no shame in being scammed. Sophisticated criminals have fooled even the most vigilant individuals.

Key Takeaways

It may seem like there’s a lot to learn when it comes to fraud and scams. Once you understand a few key pieces of information, you’ll feel empowered to protect yourself.

Here are the most important things to remember:

• Being a victim of fraud or a scam is never your fault and isn’t something to be ashamed of
• If you become a victim, report the incident immediately
• Fraud and scams can happen via email, telephone, or in-person
• Avoid disclosing personal information with anyone you don’t trust
• If something seems “off” or suspicious, it probably is

Are you interested in learning more about how to protect yourself from fraud? Read on.

Learn How to Protect Yourself at our 26^th Annual Resource Breakfast

For more helpful tips on how to protect yourself against cybercrime, we would like to invite you and your guests to join us at our 26^th Annual Resource Breakfast on January 22, 2022. We will feature former FBI special agent Jeff Lanza as our keynote speaker.

Jeff is one of the leading experts on how to protect yourself from cybercrime. He has provided over one thousand presentations on the topics like:

• Cybercrime
• Leadership
• Crisis communication
• Ethics
• Identity theft
• Body language

His clients include 20th Century Fox Entertainment, Citigroup, The Young Presidents Organization, American Century, Hallmark, and others.

Jeff will present a program on identity theft prevention that will inform and educate you on what to look out for when protecting yourself against cybercrime.

Save the date for our 26^th Annual Resource Breakfast on January 22, 2022. Registration will open shortly. More details to follow.

Carver Financial Services Has Your Back

From technological safeguards to employee policies and operating procedures, we maintain constant vigilance when your privacy is concerned.

Carver Financial Services recognizes the trust you place in us when you disclose personal information. One of our core tenants is maintaining that trust by ensuring your information is secure.

We proudly work with Raymond James who has a dedicated Privacy Office committed to the privacy and protection of the personal information you have entrusted to us.

Both Carver Financial and Raymond James take very proactive measures to protect you. From technological system monitoring 24 hours a day, 365 days a year to utilizing only the best protection technology, including:

• Encryption
• Virtual private networks
• Penetration/vulnerability testing
• Top-of-the-line firewall and antivirus technology

Cybersecurity is crucial to the framework of Carver Financial Services. You can rest assured that your information is safe with our team of talented individuals. Ultimately, though, you must also be vigilant about protecting yourself against the social engineering prevalent in the digital age.

Randy Carver, CRPC^®, CDFA^®, is the president and founder of Carver Financial Services, Inc., and is also a registered principal with Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Randy has more than 32 years of experience in the financial services business. Carver Financial Services, Inc. was established in 1990 and is one of the largest independent financial services offices in the country, managing $2.1 billion in assets for clients globally, as of July 2021. Randy and his team, work with individuals who are in financial transition as a result of divorce, retirement, or the sale of a business. You may reach Randy at randy.carver@raymondjames.com.

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Randy Carver and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Links are being provided for informational purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors.