When was the last time you did something perfectly the first time? It doesn’t happen often because most things in life require trial and error. When it comes to retirement, you have only one chance to get it right.

Many people approach retirement from a purely financial perspective; they don’t consider how they want to spend their days (and their money) or what a standard week will look like. At Carver Financial, we believe investments are only a means to suit your lifestyle. We help you plan your perfect vision of retirement.

Plan Your Retirement Better than You Plan a Vacation

At least one in five people spend more time planning their vacations than they do their retirement. We encourage you to make retirement planning a priority because it’s something you do only once. Although you can always plan another vacation, you get just one chance to have a comfortable retirement.

It takes careful planning to determine when and where you want to go once you retire, the activities you want to do and how much to budget. Because you don’t get a second chance to get it right, it can seem daunting and complicated without a guide.

According to The Wall Street Journal, roughly 15 percent of retirees find it hard to adapt to their new way of life. Experts say planning ahead may be the solution. My team and I couldn’t agree more.

Our experts often serve as life advisors, not just financial advisors. Using our Proprietary Personal Vision Planning^® process, we help you achieve your perfect vision of retirement with meticulous planning so you can enjoy your time to the fullest.

There’s More to Retirement than Finances — Let’s Fulfill Your Vision, Together

Our goal is to set you up for retirement success, whatever that looks like. Many financial advisors take an investment-centric approach to retirement. They evaluate your portfolio, your spending habits and more to determine what your retirement can look like. We take a different approach.

We say all the time, “There’s more to retirement than finances.” We want to understand your vision for retirement — what you want to do and how you’ll spend your time — and then develop a personal plan with you for achieving it. We spend time with you to discern your goals and how we will meet them financially, which is an investment that pays off.

No matter your retirement goals, we’re here to support you, whether you are a Carver Financial client or not. My book, Ultimate Vacation: The Definitive Guide to Living Well Today and Retiring Well Tomorrow, is a planning tool that helps you make big retirement-planning decisions with small steps. You can use this road map on your own or with a trusted advisor on our team.

For more information about our process and team, visit www.carverfinancialervices.com, call our office at 440-974-0808 or contact me personally at randy.carver@raymondjames.com. As always, your vision is our priority.

Upcoming Retirement Event

If you are thinking about retiring in the next two years, you may want to attend a live event we are hosting on November 1^st at 7:00 pm at The Everly in Mentor Ohio, discussing the key information to ace retirement. There is neither a cost nor any obligation to attend – however – reservations are required due to limited space. Visit our website for details and to register.

The more you know about retirement planning in advance, the more likely you are to get it right— on your first and only chance!

Randy Carver, CRPC®, CDFA®, is the president and founder of Carver Financial Services, Inc., and is also a registered principal with Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Randy has more than 32 years of experience in the financial services business. Carver Financial Services, Inc. was established in 1990 and is one of the largest independent financial services offices in the country, managing $2.2 billion in assets for clients globally, as of December 2021. Randy and his team work with individuals who are in financial transition as a result of divorce, retirement or the sale of a business. You may reach Randy at randy.carver@raymondjames.com.

The information contained in this post does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Randy Carver and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

As we approach the 2022 midterm elections, we are already hearing about who may run in 2024. As usual, the media is telling us that this is the most important election ever — and that is true.

The record voter turnout and record early voting in 2020 were evidence of how high emotions were running. We expect much the same in both the upcoming mid-terms and the 2024 election. People continue to ask our team what this election means for markets and individuals’ portfolios. Our answer is, “Possibly less than you might think.”

What History Tells Us About How Elections Affect the Markets

People have had extremely strong opinions about politics as things have become more polarized. While there are important policy ramifications that will impact all of us, history has shown that the broader markets don’t care which party is elected – yet people are still concerned about the outcome.

Nick Murray, a financial advisory professional for more than 50 years, says his network of thousands of financial advisors reported more election-related anxiety among investors before the 2020 election than ever before. In his October 2020 Client’s Corner newsletter, Murray advised, “Take your political convictions completely out of your investment decision making…The mistake a lot of investors seem hell bent on making these days is thinking that the person and policies of the president are importantly correlated to the stock market. There is zero basis, in fact, for this conviction.”

Research proves this to be true. The S&P 500 Index has historically underperformed in the year leading up to midterm elections. The average annual return of the S&P 500 in the 12 months before a midterm election is 0.3 percent, which is significantly lower than the historical average of 8.1 percent. The post-midterm election period is somewhat the opposite. The S&P 500 has historically outperformed the market in the 12-month period after a midterm election, with an average return of 16.3 percent. This is especially true for the one- and three-month periods following midterm elections, which historically have significantly outperformed years with no midterm election.

Do U.S. Stock Returns Fare Better with Democratic or Republican Presidents?

Bespoke Research shows that since 1900, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 4.8 percent annually, regardless of which party is in the White House. However, stocks do better in the lead-up to elections when America is signaling a Republican presidential win.

Peter Lazaroff, author of Making Money Simple, says U.S. stock returns have been much better when a Democrat was the president. His conclusion is based on his review of total returns for the S&P 500 during presidencies since 1929. However, he says it would be a mistake to conclude that stock returns were higher because a Democrat held the presidency.

Lazaroff says there is no conclusive evidence suggesting the U.S. president’s party has any statistically significant impact on U.S. equity market returns. Stock returns are influenced by myriad factors, including valuations, corporate profits, business cycles and monetary policy. Plus, the S&P 500 generates more than half of revenues outside the United States. The increasingly global economy reduces the overall impact of the actions of a single government.

Don’t Mix Your Portfolio with Politics

As always, we recommend looking to the long term when assessing your portfolio’s performance. Making knee-jerk decisions about your finances while feeling strong emotions of any kind never ends well.

According to a report from SunTrust Advisory Services, people who have sold U.S. stocks to protest any winner of past presidential races, whether Democrat or Republican, has meant losing out on skyrocketing returns during the new president’s first year in office. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist for SunTrust, writes that for most years from 1933 to 2019, markets “have done well under a range of political scenarios,” regardless of which party occupied the White House. He adds that over the past 15 years, despite U.S. politics becoming increasingly acrimonious, the S&P 500 still outshined, with a 20 percent-plus return, during the first year of any president following an election. “We strongly caution against mixing portfolios and politics.”

It Doesn’t Really Matter Who Wins

Resist the temptation to exit the market during tumultuous times. Nick Murray says, “When you radically alter your long-term portfolio because of current events — even when you tell yourself it’s ‘just this once, and just briefly’ — you’re not investing anymore. You’re gambling. Too many people find to their regret that once they’ve crossed that line, they’re never able to get back.”

It doesn’t really matter who wins our elections. Those who are voted into office won’t be in office forever anyway. So go ahead and celebrate or complain about the outcome of the next election. Just don’t make any changes to your investment strategy based on how you feel about it. The key is to work with a trusted advisor to develop a plan based on your needs today and in the future. The plan must be dynamic and updated as circumstances change in your life, tax rules change or the overall economy evolves. As always, we want to avoid having a concentration in any single asset or sector.

Regardless of who is president, and regardless of any turmoil in the markets, we strongly advise that you stick to your long-term plan. What happens week to week, month to month or even year to year is not important. Your long-term ability to maintain and enhance your standard of living is what matters most. Trying to time the markets simply doesn’t work, whether there is concern about an election or any other event.

We Can’t Predict the Future

There are interesting trends to watch, but again, they do not predict the future. Flukes are always possible, as we saw in 2016!

It’s futile to try to predict the future, and with a proper plan, you don’t have to! Looking at historical trends about stock market performance before, during and after presidential elections can help us set our expectations (with a healthy dose of salt).

We expect new challenges for investors as inflation increases, volatility continues, and tax laws evolve. However, these challenges also present an opportunity for those who are prepared, both financially and psychologically. We were told that the 2020 election was the most important in our lifetime — but so will the elections in 2022, 2024 and every two years after.

Our team is here for you and your family. We have developed and refined our Personal Vision Planning Process^® over the past 30 years for times like today. Please reach out to me personally, at (440) 974-0808 or randy.carver@raymondjames.com, or to any of our team, with questions or if we can otherwise be of service. Your vision is our priority.

Randy Carver, CRPC®, CDFA®, is the president and founder of Carver Financial Services, Inc., and is also a registered principal with Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Randy has more than 32 years of experience in the financial services business. Carver Financial Services, Inc. was established in 1990 and is one of the largest independent financial services offices in the country, managing $2.2 billion in assets for clients globally, as of December 2021. Randy and his team work with individuals who are in financial transition as a result of divorce, retirement or the sale of a business. You may reach Randy at randy.carver@raymondjames.com.

The information contained in this post does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Randy Carver

and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

Returns are based on the S&P 500 Total Return Index, an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index that measures the performance of 500 large capitalization domestic stocks representing all major industries. Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. The hypothetical performance calculations are shown for illustrative purposes only and are not meant to be representative of actual results while investing over the time periods shown. The hypothetical performance calculations are shown gross of fees. If fees were included, returns would be lower.

Hypothetical performance returns reflect the reinvestment of all dividends. The hypothetical performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, they do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees and other costs.

Also, because the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or overcompensated for the impact of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. Returns will fluctuate and an investment upon redemption may be worth more or less than its original value. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. An individual cannot invest directly in an index.

Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website’s users and/or members.

Markets and portfolios move up and down — but does it really matter? As we close in on the midpoint of 2022, we have seen one of the most volatile starts going all the way back to 1939.

The question people often ask is, “What’s going to happen?” Ultimately, we believe that’s the wrong question. The more important question is, “Is what’s going to happen going to affect me and my ability to meet my lifestyle?”

Why are you investing? Is it to beat an index or to achieve a personal goal? Is it to select the newest investment or to live your dream? Most of us are investing to achieve a personal goal or fulfill a need such as having retirement income, funding education, going on a vacation, or remodeling a home.

As we face volatile markets, portfolio fluctuations and dire news, we often focus on the value of our accounts, not the value they bring. If we can meet our goals today and tomorrow, then the absolute numbers really don’t matter.

Focus on Your Vision, Not on Market Performance

The most important benchmark is whether you can maintain and enhance your standard of living, not some market index. Performance should focus on your needs, wants and vision — not a random number or value. Markets will go up and down, but don’t focus on that — focus on your personal vision.

As broader markets have set record new highs, many investors are comparing the performance of their portfolios against various market indexes. In most cases, people’s portfolios do not contain the same investments as the index they are comparing them to, so the comparison is irrelevant. When markets correct and portfolio values drop, people are naturally concerned they are losing money. Again, the most important factor is whether you can meet your goals today and in the future. Shorter-term performance is irrelevant.

Asset Allocation Is More Important than Selection

Asset allocation is the practice of mixing non-correlating assets together to find an optimal balance of risk and return based on your investment profile. The idea is to minimize your portfolio risk while maximizing your returns. In contrast, asset selection, or securities selection, is the practice of building your portfolio with a variety of investments that align with your asset- allocation strategy.

Studies have shown that asset allocation can account for more than 90 percent of your return.

We agree that asset allocation — not investment selection — is the most important factor in determining your investment success. We have a rigorous process for screening, selecting and monitoring investments. That is the science; developing an allocation and broad plan based on your personal goals, vision and needs is the art.

Trying to Time the Markets Never Works

One of the worst things investors can do is to try to time markets. Chasing past performance or making decisions based on emotions has led to significantly reduced returns for many people. This is why the average equity mutual fund investor underperforms the average fund by about 40 percent over 20-year periods, according to Nick Murray Interactive.

DALBAR, a financial services research firm, studies the timing of mutual fund flows to determine how emotions impact investment decisions. The finding is that “Most investors are bad at market timing but try to do it anyway.” The “average investor” has underperformed a basic, indexed 60/40 portfolio by 3.5 percent annualized. On a $100,000 initial investment from the start of 2001 through the end of 2020, that adds up to nearly $170,000 of missed gains.

When market volatility tempts you to bail out, consider this fact. In the past 20 years, seven of the best days in the market happened within just about two weeks of the 10 worst days. Your best strategy is to stay in the market and focus on the long term. Again, shorter-term performance is irrelevant.

Leave Emotions Out of Financial Decisions

While many firms focus on selling the latest investment or trying to beat a benchmark, we focus on you and achieving your vision. Rather than taking an investment-centric approach that looks at the portfolio and tries to determine how your life can be, we want to understand what your personal vision is for the future and then develop a holistic plan to achieve it. The investments themselves are simply a means to an end. We call this Personal Vision Planning^®.

Focusing on your long-term vision can help you avoid making costly knee-jerk decisions based on emotion.

Regardless of what transpires, we are here for you. We want to understand what’s important to you and plan accordingly. Ultimately, most people are investing to meet personal goals and needs. Your vision is our priority, and your success is our passion.

For more information about our process and team, visit www.carverfinancialervices.com, or feel free to contact me personally at randy.carver@raymondjames.com.

Randy Carver, CRPC®, CDFA®, is the president and founder of Carver Financial Services, Inc., and is also a registered principal with Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Randy has more than 32 years of experience in the financial services business. Carver Financial Services, Inc. was established in 1990 and is one of the largest independent financial services offices in the country, managing $2.2 billion in assets for clients globally, as of December 2021. Randy and his team work with individuals who are in financial transition as a result of divorce, retirement or the sale of a business. You may reach Randy at randy.carver@raymondjames.com.

The information contained in this post does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Randy Carver and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. No investment strategy, including asset allocation or diversification can guarantee your objectives will be met. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

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As gas prices and inflation generally surge, we are hearing a lot of commentary from pundits — and often, the messages contradict one another.

For example, in the past few weeks, there has been a lot of attention to comments JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon made about a “hurricane” hitting the U.S. economy because of the Fed and the Ukraine war. Yet a few days later, JP Morgan Chief Economist Bruce Kasman commented on Bloomberg TV, “There’s no real reason to be worried about a recession, although there is some slowing in the picture.”

Kasman continued, “What we have here is a powerful tension between drags that are not going away and a very resilient private sector, with the health of both households and corporates being quite remarkable right now. We don’t see a near-term recession. We see a global economy which actually does OK in the second half of the year, with the U.S. slowing and the rest of the world doing somewhat better.”

So we have two vastly different opinions from the top brass at JP Morgan. Whose assessment is correct? I don’t know, but what’s more important is what the impact of economic shifts may have on you.

Strong Data Point to a Strong Economy

To make good decisions, we need good information. Politicians are motivated to generate votes and the media to bring in viewers. While we believe there could be a recession, the real question is, “Does it matter?” Probably not. Moreover, the economic facts – not the media hype – suggest that the economy remains strong.

The employment report for May confirmed that the U.S. economy continues to grow. Both major measures of jobs went up in May: nonfarm payrolls rose 390,000, while civilian employment increased 321,000. Total average hourly earnings expanded 0.3 percent.

How the jobs numbers look really depends on the sector you are looking at. Jobs in leisure & hospitality increased 84,000, the seventeenth consecutive monthly gain. Yet in retail, payrolls dropped 61,000 in May. With the exception of the initial onset of COVID-related lockdowns in 2020, that’s the steepest drop for any month since 2009.

Politicians want to take credit for good news and blame others for bad news — Putin, Ukraine, supply chain etc. As usual, some politicians are now trying to take credit for the job growth.

President Biden says he’s created about 600,000 “new” manufacturing jobs since he took office, for example. It’s true — that is (nearly) how much manufacturing jobs have increased since January 2021, but total manufacturing jobs are still 17,000 below the pre-COVID peak. The economy is still climbing out of the COVID lockdown hole. That means jobs will grow in 2022, in spite of the Fed raising rates and in spite of what the government does.

Even with increased interest rates, consumer cash flow and balance sheets remain strong. The financial obligations ratio finished 2021 at 14.0 percent. That’s the share of consumers’ after-tax income they need to use on debt obligations (like mortgage payments and car loans), as well as recurring payments such as property taxes, homeowners’ insurance and car lease payments.

To put that in perspective, from 1980 (when the Federal Reserve began tracking data) to the end of 2019, the ratio was never lower than 14.7 percent.

Meanwhile, by the end of 2021, household net worth had increased elevenfold over the past 70 years, after adjusting for inflation. Americans had $1.2 trillion in checkable deposits and currency before COVID. At year end 2021, they had $4.1 trillion. While many are being impacted by inflation, overall people are in some of the best financial shape they have been in 30 years.

Visit Your Local Restaurant for a Good View of the Economy

Looking beyond all the technical data, I believe one of the easiest ways to judge how the economy is doing is to go to your favorite restaurant on a Friday or Saturday and see how busy it is.

Loose money from the Federal Reserve, combined with massive spending by the government, has inflated everything. Limiting domestic oil production has exacerbated the inflation issue.

Even so, the economy remains strong overall. As prices continue to rise and people reduce spending, we believe inflation will slow.

For investors, the bigger question is not what the economy or markets are going to do, but rather, how they will impact your ability to maintain and enhance your lifestyle. I am not suggesting that people do anything different now; I just want to stress that some of the dire predictions we are hearing are based on politics, not fact.

At some point, we will see Jamie’s Dimon’s hurricane, but right now it seems like a tropical storm at best.

Stay the Course

Our recommended strategy has not changed — keep cash on hand for near-term needs, and work with your advisor team to help ensure your portfolio generates income to help offset short- term volatility. We believe in proactively monitoring and rebalancing to take advantage of market, tax and economic conditions. Please reach out to us with any questions or if we can otherwise be of service. Your vision is our priority, and your success is our passion.

For more information about our process and team, visit www.carverfinancialervices.com, or feel free to contact me personally at randy.carver@raymondjames.com.

Randy Carver, CRPC®, CDFA®, is the president and founder of Carver Financial Services, Inc., and is also a registered principal with Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Randy has more than 32 years of experience in the financial services business. Carver Financial Services, Inc. was established in 1990 and is one of the largest independent financial services offices in the country, managing $2.2 billion in assets for clients globally, as of December 2021. Randy and his team work with individuals who are in financial transition as a result of divorce, retirement or the sale of a business. You may reach Randy at randy.carver@raymondjames.com.

The information contained in this post does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Randy Carver and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. No investment strategy, including asset allocation or diversification can guarantee your objectives will be met. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.