Helping you achieve your personal vision based upon your individual needs, goals and risk tolerance..

The Big 3

Don’t Let a Century of the “Big Three” Issues Take Your Focus Off Your Personal Vision

We continue to hear about ‘breaking news regarding the war in Israel, economic problems at home and the latest pandemic. The reality is that the world has grappled with this trio of seemingly intractable challenges for more than 100 years. These three issues have persisted through generations, shaping the global landscape, and leaving their indelible mark on the course of history. Despite the passage of time and numerous attempts to address them, they continue to be significant concerns and the media continues to make it seem like they are something new. They are not.

While we cannot predict the future, understanding the historical roots and enduring nature of these issues can help us develop more effective strategies to mitigate their impact and ignore the media hype. We must not let these ongoing issues distract us from our long-term vision for the future. Our team is here to help you navigate your financial journey with these challenges.

War in the Middle East: A Century of Turmoil

The Middle East has been a hotspot for conflict for more than a thousand years. The roots of the more recent conflicts can be traced back to the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire after World War I. The division of the region into new states, often with arbitrary borders drawn by colonial powers, laid the foundation for decades of instability. The Arab Israeli conflict, the Iranian Revolution, the Gulf Wars and the ongoing Syrian Civil War are just a few examples of the enduring conflicts in the region.

The Arab–Israeli War of 1948 broke out when five Arab nations invaded territory in the former Palestinian mandate immediately following the announcement of the independence of the state of Israel on May 14, 1948. The Iran–Iraq war from 1980 to 1988, the more recent Syrian civil war that began in 2011 and the ongoing struggle against extremist ideologies are just a few examples of the relentless turmoil.

One reason for the persistence of Middle Eastern conflicts is the strategic importance of the region. Its vast oil reserves have made it a battleground for global superpowers, with the United States, Russia and China vying for influence. Religious and sectarian divisions, coupled with nationalist aspirations, have further fueled these conflicts. The Middle East remains a complex web of geopolitical rivalries and ethnic tensions, making it challenging to find lasting solutions.

Economic Troubles at Home: A Centenary of Financial Flux

Economic troubles at home have been a constant backdrop to the past century, with periods of economic prosperity often followed by downturns. The Great Depression of the 1930s, the 2007–09 global financial crisis and, more recently, the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic are testament to this enduring issue. Factors like inflation, unemployment and fiscal policy continue to influence the economic landscape.

In more recent times, the global financial crisis of 2008 and the challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic have been stark reminders of our vulnerability to economic shocks.

Adapting to changing economic conditions requires investors to take a proactive approach — to not only maintain wealth but also to take advantage of short-term uncertainty and volatility to and grow their assets. Again, it’s important to stick with the plan your advice team has tailored for you; regardless of what’s happening in the economy or media. We utilize a combination of current income and cash for near term needs to ride out volatile periods with longer term growth investments to combat inflation. The overall allocation is specifically tailored to your personal needs, situation, and vision.

Pandemics: A Century of Health Crises

Pandemics have also been a recurring threat for more than a century. Various plagues, the Spanish flu of 1918, the HIV/AIDS pandemic, SARS, Ebola and the COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2019 are just some of the infectious diseases that have periodically surged to the forefront of global consciousness.

While advances in medicine and global cooperation have improved our ability to respond to pandemics, these health crises continue to disrupt societies and economies worldwide. The emergence of new infectious diseases, the interconnectedness of the modern world and challenges in coordinating a global response all contribute to the ongoing threat of pandemics. As long as human populations are vulnerable to infectious diseases, pandemics will remain a significant concern. As with the other issues this can present an opportunity for savvy investors.

The Endurance of the Big Three Issues

The “big three” — war in the Middle East, economic troubles at home and pandemics —are deeply interwoven with the complexities of our modern world, making them difficult to resolve completely. Despite concerted efforts to address them, they continue to shape the course of history and pose ongoing threats to global stability.

In the age of 24/7 news coverage and digital media, sensationalism often takes precedence over objective reporting. The media has an undeniable influence on public perception, and when it comes to covering the “big three” issues, it’s not uncommon for sensationalism to drive fear and panic. While these issues are not new, the way the media present them can contribute to public unease and anxiety. This also creates an opportunity.

A buy-and-hold strategy can result in quicker loss recuperation, than trying to time markets. By being proactive you may even benefit from the volatility.

For example if you had invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 on January 1, 2008. You might recall that in 2008, the S&P 500 lost 37 percent of its value. At the end of 2008, your investment would have been worth $6,300. If you had kept your money where it was, you would have recouped your losses by 2012, even if you made no additions to your original stock market investment. If you had chosen instead to reinvest that $6,300 in a savings account with a 3 percent interest rate, compounded monthly, it would have taken 16 years for you to recoup your losses and cross that $10,000 threshold. Had you been tactical you could have enjoyed tax benefits and grown you assets via the portfolio versus trying to time the market.

Our planning seeks to protect you from short-term volatility while guiding you to benefit from the uncertainty. We take a proactive approach based on your vision rather than market timing.

As we reflect on a century marked by the persistent challenges of war, economic instability, and pandemics, it is clear that our ability to adapt and innovate has been our greatest strength. The media would have us believe that “this time it’s different” and that the latest crisis is “breaking news” — but it’s not.

Those who panic will ultimately hurt themselves financially, and possibly emotionally, while those who have a plan and are steadfast can benefit. We are here for you and are always happy to answer any questions or concerns. Times of uncertainty can present an opportunity for longer term investors. We believe that is true today as it has been over the last 100 years.

We will continue to offer updates via video and our live events. You can access more information on these via our web site https://carverfinancialservices.com/.

Please reach out to me personally, or to any of our team, with questions or if we can otherwise be of service. We are here for you!

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Randy Carver, CRPC®, CDFA®, is the president and founder of Carver Financial Services, Inc., and is also a registered principal with Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Carver Financial Services, Inc., was established in 1990 with the vision of making people’s lives better — clients, team and community. With this mission, Carver Financial Services has grown to be one of the largest independent financial services offices in the country, managing $2.3 billion in assets for clients globally, as of March 2023. You can reach Randy directly at randy.carver@raymondjames.com and in the office at (440) 974-0808.

The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Carver Financial Services and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including asset allocation and diversification. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary.

Randy Carver, CRPC®, CDFA®, is the president and founder of Carver Financial Services, Inc., and is also a registered principal with Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Carver Financial Services, Inc., was established in 1990 with the vision of making people’s lives better — clients, team and community. With this mission, Carver Financial Services has grown to be one of the largest independent financial services offices in the country, managing $2.3 billion in assets for clients globally, as of March 2023. You can reach Randy directly at randy.carver@raymondjames.com and in the office at (440) 974-0808.

Any opinions are those of Randy Carver and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.

Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website’s users and/or members.

Navigating a New Financial Landscape

 

Our panelists will discuss the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead and provide practical advice on how to navigate this complex landscape. Whether you are a seasoned investor or just starting out, this event hopes to provide valuable insights and actionable advice to help you achieve your financial goals. Don’t miss out on this opportunity to learn from some of the best in the business and connect with like-minded individuals who share your passion for financial success.

 

 

The Big 3

Throughout history, we have witnessed countless wars in the Middle East, pandemics, and economic uncertainties. The media always tells us this time it’s different – generally it’s not.

Building a Legacy of Financial Services

Since founding our firm in 1990, life continues to be more complex and the pace of change continues to accelerate. We remain dedicated to helping our clients simplify their lives and enhance their lifestyle. The mission of helping people lead their best life possible remains our guiding value.

Breaking Noise

 

Following economic news, and trying to make sense of the big picture, can be a challenge. While some indicators are rising, others are decreasing, some pundits are calling for inflation, and others a recession.  There’s always “breaking news” or perhaps we should call it breaking noise.

As usual, some of the information you receive may be a little confusing, incomplete, or misleading. The following discussion offers clarification and our insight into recent developments in the news.

The Cap Weighted and Equal Weighted S&P 500

As of September 25th,, the cap-weighted S&P 500 was up 12.5 percent year to date, yet the S&P 500 equal weight index was up just 1 percent. Many stocks are below their 52-week high or are negative for the year.

“Wait a minute,” you may be thinking. “How could a market index be up when most of its constituents are down? ”The S&P 500 is weighted by market capitalization. Essentially, the bigger a company is, the more room it takes up in the index. As a result, these indexes can get top-heavy. Currently, the top seven stocks in the S&P cap S&P-weighted index account for approximately 30 percent of its value.

The top seven stocks — Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Meta Platforms and NVIDIA — have seen significant gains after a bleak 2022, and the collective gains have kept the S&P 500 in positive territory in 2023. When the holdings of the S&P are equally weighted, the returns are flat.

Because most portfolios are not overweighted in the “magnificent seven,” the equal-weighted index is the better benchmark to look at. The equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 Index was launched in December 1989.  While the Equal Weight index is lagging the cap-weighted in 2023 it has it has outperformed the cap-weighted S&P 500 Index by an annualized 100 basis points per year since its inception. It’s important to note that it is not possible to invest directly in an index. When comparing a portfolio return to an index, we must consider expense and other factors.  Moreover, a portfolio may be managed for tax efficiency and can provide a higher net after-tax return for you, even if the total return pre-tax is lower than the index.

Ultimately, we believe that the most important benchmark for clients is meeting their individual needs — not outperforming a random index.

The Fed’s Rate Hikes

Another looming question is whether the Federal Reserve is finished raising rates.

The Fed took a pause on interest-rate increases in September. There are economic signs to support the proposition that the Fed’s rate-hike cycle has done its job — slowing the economy enough to cool inflation —and can be ended. Whether the central bank still sees the need for another increase is a key question as we head into the final months of 2023 and the beginning of 2024.

As always, we are not market forecasters or timers — nor do we believe that you need to be, either, to meet your overall goals. We do believe you should have enough cash for any anticipated expenses in the next 6 to 12 months so you can ride out any market volatility. Currently, many money market funds are yielding 5.25 percent or greater, and we are seeing FDIC-insured CDs that are one year or less that are paying 5.6 to 5.75 percent. If you have excess cash in the bank, you may want to consider these vehicles.

The Opportunity in Volatility

Financial markets kicked off 2023 with renewed volatility amid persistent inflation concerns, expectations for Fed rate hikes and escalating geopolitical tensions over Russia and Ukraine. The pace of change and overall media negativity has never been greater. Although this constant onslaught of negative news can be annoying, we believe it presents an opportunity for you. Market corrections can cause a lot of anxiety, and we expect continued volatility in the months and years ahead.

Heraclitus, a Greek philosopher, is quoted as saying, “Change is the only constant in life.” That is true of the markets as well. Because we know volatility is a given, we can leverage it to buy into potential opportunities that might have been out of reach at other times.

Consider that financial markets have historically seen a significant pullback at some point during most years while still delivering positive returns over the full year. For example, in 2018, the S&P 500 saw a market correction of more than 10 percent in the first quarter of the year and again in the fourth quarter, followed by a rebound of more than 13 percent in the first quarter of 2019.

Pullbacks have historically been followed by rebounds. Since 1974, the S&P 500 has risen an average of more than 8 percent one month after a market correction bottom and more than 24 percent one year later. These market corrections may be more common than you might think. Over the seven years since March 2015, there have been five corrections and one bear market. A bear market is a pullback of at least a 20 percent decline from a recent high.

It’s important to remember that market pullbacks are not uncommon — and occur in most years. These market corrections can be healthy in resetting stock valuations and investor expectations within a longer-term market advance. Having a long-term, strategic asset-allocation plan and sticking to that plan through periods of market volatility can help keep you on the right track. We design your portfolio to provide broad diversification across up to 20 asset classes, including defensive asset classes such as cash that can help you withstand these inevitable periods of volatility. This broad diversification, along with a proactive rebalancing process, can help provide you with the discipline to remain calm during periods of short-term volatility while helping you achieve longer-term objectives.

The goal is to meet your needs and risk profile — not to beat a random index. So, while the economy, the markets and the world itself continue to change at dizzying speeds, we focus on your personal vision.

We Are Different

Thousands of firms sell investments and/or offer financial planning from an investment-centric view. We are not one of them. We view investments and planning merely as tools for truly helping you live your best life possible.   We are not a financial planning organization; we are a personal vision organization.  We are always here to provide advice on anything that matters to you and that is consistent with your personal goals and vision; whether it is about a trip to take, a tax strategy or an investment. The more we understand what’s important to you, the better we can design and implement a plan that will help you get there — regardless of what’s happening in the media, markets or economy.

Please reach out to me personally, or to any of our team, with questions, concerns or if we can otherwise be of service.

________

Randy Carver, CRPC®, CDFA®, is the president and founder of Carver Financial Services, Inc., and is also a registered principal with Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Carver Financial Services, Inc., was established in 1990 with the vision of making people’s lives better — clients, team and community. With this mission, Carver Financial Services has grown to be one of the largest independent financial services offices in the country, managing $2.3 billion in assets for clients globally, as of March 2023. You can reach Randy directly at randy.carver@raymondjames.com and in the office at (440) 974-0808.

The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Carver Financial Services and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including asset allocation and diversification. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary.

 

 

 

 

Case Western Reserve Names Carver Financial to its 2023 Weatherhead 100 List

September 26, 2023 – Carver Financial Services, Inc. was named by Case Western Reserve University to its 2023 Weatherhead 100 list. Companies recognized on this prestigious Weatherhead 100 list are honored for their percent of revenue growth over the past five years.

The Weatherhead 100 list, presented annually by Case Western Reserve’s Weatherhead School of Management, is a highly coveted award that recognizes the fastest-growing companies in the Cleveland area. Carver Financial Services’ remarkable achievements have propelled it into this esteemed group of businesses, showcasing its dedication to providing exceptional financial solutions and services to clients.

“We are thrilled to be named to the Weatherhead 100 list,” said Randy Carver, CEO and Founder of Carver Financial Services. “This recognition is a reflection of the hard work and dedication of our entire team, as well as the trust and confidence our clients have placed in us. It reaffirms our commitment to delivering innovative financial strategies and personalized services.”

Carver Financial Services has consistently demonstrated its ability to adapt to market changes, offer innovative solutions, and provide top-notch financial guidance to its clients. Their commitment to excellence, integrity, and client satisfaction has been pivotal in achieving this significant milestone.

The rankings are based on data from the following: have net sales growth between $100k and $1M for 2023 over the most recent 5 year period, headquartered in Ashland, Ashtabula, Cuyahoga, Erie, Geauga, Huron, Lake, Lorain, Mahoning, Medina, Portage, Richland, Stark, Summit, Trumbull or Wayne County, not a franchise or subsidiary of another company and must be a for-profit organization. Neither Raymond James nor any of its financial advisors pay a fee in exchange for this award/rating. Case Western Reserve University and Weatherhead 100 is not affiliated with Raymond James.

The 2023 Weatherhead 100 awards recognize companies headquartered in Northeast Ohio on net sales growth over the most recent 5 year period. To be considered companies must be for-profit, not a franchise or subsidiary of another company, and have net sales between $100k and $1M for 2023. Out of 165 nominations received, 89 companies were recognized. This ranking is based upon the period from 01/01/2018 to 09/01/2023 and was released on 09/26/2023. This ranking is not based in any way on the individual’s abilities in regards to providing investment advice or management.

Neither Raymond James nor any of its Financial Advisors pay a fee in exchange for this award/rating. This recognition is not indicative of an advisor’s future performance, is not an endorsement, and may not be representative of individual clients’ experience. Raymond James is not affiliated with Crain’s Cleveland Business, Case Western Reserve University or Weatherhead 100.

 

 

Protecting Wealth for an Aging America

As our population ages, the question isn’t “if” but “how many” of your people will be impacted by Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia. This presentation, based on the Transamerica-Massachusetts Institute of Technology AgeLab’s provides insights into helping families prepare for future challenges, caregiving, and having a plan for the unexpected. Today, more than one in five Americans are caregivers. And over half are employed while providing more than 24 hours of care per week.  This presentation includes a discussion of long-term care asset protection strategies available today.

Seminar Handout