How Elections Affect the Stock Market: What Investors Need to Know

2024: The Year of Global Elections

In 2024, more than 2 billion voters across 50 countries — including the United States, the European Union, and India — will head to the polls.
It’s the largest election year in history, representing over 40% of the world’s population and economy.

These political milestones can trigger short-term swings in global stock markets as investors react to uncertainty and shifting policies. But the key takeaway?
With a well-diversified financial plan, elections should not derail your long-term strategy.

Market Timing vs. Staying the Course

As elections approach, it’s common for investors to ask:

“Should I pull my money out of the market until things settle down?”

The short answer: No — not if you have a diversified portfolio and a long-term plan.

Trying to predict when to exit and re-enter the market — known as market timing — is one of the most common investing mistakes.
Decades of data show that even missing just a handful of the market’s best days can dramatically reduce returns.

For example:
A $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2018, would have grown to about $48,000 if you stayed invested the entire time.
But if you missed just the 10 best days in those 20 years, your ending balance would have been cut in half.

The lesson is clear — time in the market beats timing the market.

How Elections Influence Markets

Elections don’t just shape governments; they influence how investors perceive risk, policy, and growth potential. But the effects are rarely straightforward.

1. Pre-Election Uncertainty

The months before an election often bring lower returns and higher volatility, as investors brace for potential changes.
According to Forbes, pre-election years tend to underperform because markets dislike uncertainty.
However, in the 12 months following an election, markets typically rebound — regardless of which party wins.

2. Election Day Volatility

Markets often experience short, sharp movements on Election Day as results come in.
Between 1970 and 2022, the S&P 500 moved an average of 0.32% on Election Day — 10 times its normal daily fluctuation of 0.03%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Interestingly, 60% of those election days ended positive.

This shows that volatility is normal — not necessarily negative.

3. Post-Election Recovery or Rally

Once results are known, uncertainty fades. Markets tend to stabilize or even rise as investors gain clarity about the new administration’s direction.
Historically, if a new party takes office, average market returns hover around 5% the following year.
If the incumbent party remains, returns average slightly higher at 6.5%.

In other words: Markets can handle bad news — but they dislike not knowing.

The Bigger Picture: Inflation and the Economy Matter More

While elections can move markets in the short term, economic and inflation trends tend to have a far stronger impact on long-term returns.
Data show that GDP growth, interest rates, and inflation influence portfolios far more consistently than political outcomes.

Every election year feels “different,” but history tells us the fundamentals of investing — diversification, patience, and discipline — matter far more than politics.

Smart Strategies for Election-Year Investing

If market chatter or news headlines make you uneasy, here are four ways to stay grounded:

1. Keep Cash for Short-Term Needs

Hold enough liquid assets to cover short-term expenses and emergencies. This ensures you’re never forced to sell investments during a downturn.

2. Stay Diversified

Diversify across asset classes (stocks, bonds, international markets, and alternatives) to help balance potential volatility.

3. Focus on the Long Term

Reacting to short-term political noise often leads to emotional decision-making. Remember: investing is about years, not election cycles.

4. Lean on Professional Guidance

Working with a trusted financial advisor provides both expertise and perspective.
A Vanguard “Advisor’s Alpha” study found that financial advisors add an average of 3% in net returns per year by helping clients stay disciplined, manage taxes, and choose cost-efficient investments.

Your plan — not the political landscape — should drive your financial decisions.

Carver’s Perspective: Experience Through Every Election

At Carver Financial Services, we’ve guided clients through more than three decades of elections, recessions, and recoveries.
Our team — with over 250 years of combined experience — has seen firsthand that elections don’t define outcomes; discipline does.

Our proprietary Personal Vision Planning® process focuses on your life, not just your portfolio.
By aligning your investments with your goals and maintaining a clear long-term strategy, we help you stay confident no matter who wins the next election.

Markets can process bad news — but they can’t process uncertainty.
When you stay invested and stay diversified, you win either way.

Any opinions are those of Randy Carver and not necessarily those of Raymond James. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. 

The Value of Guidance: Why Working with a Financial Advisor Can Increase Your Returns

Do Financial Advisors Really Add Value? The Data Says Yes.

In an age where investing apps and online platforms make DIY investing seem simple, many people wonder whether working with a financial advisor is really worth it.

The short answer? Yes — and there’s proof.

Multiple independent studies — from Vanguard, Russell Investments, and Morningstar — have found that investors who partner with financial advisors often see higher net returns, make better decisions, and achieve greater long-term financial confidence.

While technology can help you invest, only human guidance can help you plan, adapt, and stay disciplined through the ups and downs of life and markets.

Why Advice Matters More Than Stock Selection

Working with an advisor isn’t just about picking investments. It’s about creating and following a personal financial plan designed to help you:

• Minimize taxes and expenses
• Manage risk and volatility
• Stay focused on long-term goals
• Avoid costly emotional mistakes

It’s not just what you earn that matters — it’s what you keep and how you use it to live your best life.

Study 1: Vanguard’s “Advisor Alpha®” — Quantifying the Value of Advice

Vanguard, one of the world’s largest investment management companies, developed the “Advisor’s Alpha®” framework to measure how professional guidance adds measurable value beyond investment returns.

The study found that advisors can add up to 3% in net annual returns through:

• Behavioral coaching: Helping clients avoid emotional decisions during volatility
• Disciplined rebalancing: Maintaining consistent, long-term allocations
• Tax-efficient investing: Structuring portfolios for maximum after-tax growth
• Cost-effective strategy: Reducing internal fees and inefficiencies

In other words, the greatest value isn’t from “beating the market,” but from guiding investor behavior and aligning strategy with purpose.

Study 2: Russell Investments’ “Value of an Advisor” — A Decade of Evidence

Russell Investments’ long-term research, “The Value of an Advisor”, has analyzed investor performance over the past 25 years.
Their 2023 update introduced a simple but powerful formula:

A + B + C + T = Advisor Value

• A: Active rebalancing of portfolios
• B: Behavioral coaching
• C: Customized experience and family wealth planning
• T: Tax-smart investing and financial planning

According to Russell, these combined benefits add 1.5% or more per year to long-term returns.

But more importantly, they help clients stay the course during turbulent markets — preventing emotional decisions that can set investors back years.

Study 3: Morningstar’s “Gamma” — The Science of Smarter Decisions

Morningstar’s influential paper, “Alpha, Beta, and Now…Gamma,” expanded the conversation by quantifying the impact of better financial decision-making.

The study introduced the concept of Gamma — the additional value that comes from intelligent financial planning, not from market outperformance.

Examples include:

• Tax-efficient withdrawal strategies in retirement
• Optimal asset allocation
• Behavioral discipline and coaching

Morningstar found that personalized advice can generate the equivalent of 1.59% more annual income in retirement — meaning investors can enjoy more financial stability simply by planning smarter, not riskier.

Why Advisors Create Measurable Value

Across all three studies, the findings are consistent: professional guidance leads to better outcomes.
Here’s why:

1. Behavioral Coaching
   Advisors help you stay disciplined during volatility and avoid emotional decisions.
   (Research shows emotional mistakes are one of the biggest drains on investor performance.)
2. Asset Allocation & Risk Management
   Advisors help construct portfolios tailored to your goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon — balancing growth and protection.
3. Tax Efficiency
   Strategic investment placement, harvesting losses, and optimizing withdrawals can dramatically increase after-tax wealth.
4. Comprehensive Planning
   Beyond investing, advisors coordinate estate planning, insurance, retirement income, and education funding to create a cohesive long-term roadmap.

Partnering for Success: The Carver Approach

At Carver Financial Services, we use our proprietary Personal Vision Planning® process — a holistic, four-step framework that connects your financial strategy to your life goals.

Unlike traditional firms that focus solely on markets or portfolios, we focus on you — your values, priorities, and vision for the future.

Our process includes:

1. Defining Your Vision: What does your best life look like?
2. Developing the Plan: Structuring investments and tax strategies around your goals.
3. Implementing with Discipline: Executing a plan that evolves with you.
4. Monitoring and Adjusting: Keeping your strategy aligned through life’s changes.

Our team brings decades of experience and the collective knowledge of 300+ years of advisory expertise, ensuring that your plan isn’t just managed — it’s guided, refined, and protected over time.

The Bottom Line: Advice Isn’t a Cost — It’s an Investment

Financial advice doesn’t just manage money; it creates clarity, confidence, and better decisions.

When you partner with an experienced advisor, you gain more than performance — you gain a strategy, a partnership, and peace of mind.

At Carver Financial Services, we’re not here to chase markets — we’re here to help you live your best life possible with purpose and precision.

Because the true return on advice isn’t just financial — it’s personal.

Any opinions are those of Randy Carver and not necessarily those of Raymond James. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The results in the studies described are hypothetical in nature and not actual investment results or guarantees of future results. 

 

Beyond the Numbers: A New Way to Think About Financial Planning

Traditional financial planning has long focused on the numbers — savings, investments, and retirement accounts. While these are crucial, true well-being involves much more than wealth.

Today, more people are embracing a holistic planning approach — one that integrates not only finances but also physical, emotional, and mental health, along with personal values and purpose.

At Carver Financial Services, we call this approach Personal Vision Planning® — a process we’ve developed and refined for over 30 years to help clients live intentionally and design a future that is both financially stable and deeply fulfilling.

What Is Holistic Financial Planning?

Holistic planning is about seeing the entire picture of your life — not just your portfolio balance.

It connects financial success to emotional balance, health, relationships, and long-term happiness. Our approach combines advanced technology with personalized human guidance to help clients live with clarity and intention.

Here are the six essential components of a high-quality holistic plan:

1. Comprehensive Financial Well-Being

Financial stability is just one part of a fulfilling life. Holistic planning weaves it together with other dimensions — family, health, purpose, and peace of mind.

At Carver Financial Services, we not only guide your investments and retirement strategies but also connect you with professionals for travel planning, healthcare advice, and personal development.

2. Physical and Mental Health

Your health is the foundation of your wealth. A healthy lifestyle doesn’t just improve your quality of life — it also reduces long-term healthcare costs and improves financial resilience.

Our planning philosophy encourages clients to maintain wellness routines and supports preventive health strategies that protect both body and budget.

3. Lifestyle and Aspirations

A holistic plan begins with your vision for life — not just your retirement balance.

What do you value most? What gives your life meaning? Whether it’s traveling the world, mentoring others, or leaving a meaningful legacy, we help you build a plan that funds your goals and aligns with your deeper purpose.

4. Family and Relationships

Money is most meaningful when it strengthens the people and relationships that matter most.

Holistic planning includes family dynamics, communication, and legacy planning. We help facilitate family meetings and legacy conversations to ensure your wealth supports connection, not conflict.

5. Emotional Well-Being and Stress Management

Financial uncertainty is one of the leading sources of stress for adults.

Our holistic approach helps reduce anxiety by creating clarity and structure. We incorporate strategies for stress management, emotional resilience, and confidence in decision-making, helping you find peace of mind while pursuing your goals.

6. Continual Adaptation

Life evolves — and your plan should too.

A truly effective financial plan is dynamic, not static. We meet regularly with clients to adjust strategies based on life changes, market shifts, and new priorities. This adaptability ensures that your plan remains relevant and aligned with your vision as it grows.

The Benefits of Holistic Planning

When your plan considers every aspect of your life — not just your assets — the results can be transformative.

1. Enhanced Life Satisfaction

By aligning your finances with your personal values and goals, you gain a greater sense of fulfillment, purpose, and overall well-being.

2. Reduced Stress and Anxiety

With a clear plan addressing your finances, health, and emotional resilience, you can move forward confidently — without fear of running out of money or running out of time.

3. Improved Decision-Making

Holistic planning promotes self-awareness and perspective, empowering you to make informed, meaningful decisions that reflect who you are and what you value most.

When you know what you’re striving for — and have a plan that supports it — you can truly live with intention.

Carver’s Personal Vision Planning®: Turning Purpose Into a Plan

At Carver Financial Services, we’ve spent three decades refining a proven, client-centered process that bridges financial planning and life design.

Our Personal Vision Planning® process helps you:

• Define what “living well” means for you
• Build a plan that balances today’s needs with tomorrow’s dreams
• Adapt as life, markets, and goals evolve
• Enjoy the freedom to live with confidence and intention

We look beyond wealth management to help clients align every decision with their values and vision.

Live Intentionally, Plan Holistically

A fulfilling life isn’t built by chance — it’s built with purpose, clarity, and a plan that supports both your financial goals and your personal well-being.

If you’d like to explore a holistic approach to your financial future, our team is here to help — without cost or obligation.

You deserve more than a financial plan. You deserve a life plan that works — for you.

Any opinions are those of Randy Carver and not necessarily those of Raymond James. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.