Don’t Let a Century of the “Big Three” Issues Take Your Focus Off Your Personal Vision
We continue to hear about ‘breaking news regarding the war in Israel, economic problems at home and the latest pandemic. The reality is that the world has grappled with this trio of seemingly intractable challenges for more than 100 years. These three issues have persisted through generations, shaping the global landscape, and leaving their indelible mark on the course of history. Despite the passage of time and numerous attempts to address them, they continue to be significant concerns and the media continues to make it seem like they are something new. They are not.
While we cannot predict the future, understanding the historical roots and enduring nature of these issues can help us develop more effective strategies to mitigate their impact and ignore the media hype. We must not let these ongoing issues distract us from our long-term vision for the future. Our team is here to help you navigate your financial journey with these challenges.
War in the Middle East: A Century of Turmoil
The Middle East has been a hotspot for conflict for more than a thousand years. The roots of the more recent conflicts can be traced back to the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire after World War I. The division of the region into new states, often with arbitrary borders drawn by colonial powers, laid the foundation for decades of instability. The Arab Israeli conflict, the Iranian Revolution, the Gulf Wars and the ongoing Syrian Civil War are just a few examples of the enduring conflicts in the region.
The Arab–Israeli War of 1948 broke out when five Arab nations invaded territory in the former Palestinian mandate immediately following the announcement of the independence of the state of Israel on May 14, 1948. The Iran–Iraq war from 1980 to 1988, the more recent Syrian civil war that began in 2011 and the ongoing struggle against extremist ideologies are just a few examples of the relentless turmoil.
One reason for the persistence of Middle Eastern conflicts is the strategic importance of the region. Its vast oil reserves have made it a battleground for global superpowers, with the United States, Russia and China vying for influence. Religious and sectarian divisions, coupled with nationalist aspirations, have further fueled these conflicts. The Middle East remains a complex web of geopolitical rivalries and ethnic tensions, making it challenging to find lasting solutions.
Economic Troubles at Home: A Centenary of Financial Flux
Economic troubles at home have been a constant backdrop to the past century, with periods of economic prosperity often followed by downturns. The Great Depression of the 1930s, the 2007–09 global financial crisis and, more recently, the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic are testament to this enduring issue. Factors like inflation, unemployment and fiscal policy continue to influence the economic landscape.
In more recent times, the global financial crisis of 2008 and the challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic have been stark reminders of our vulnerability to economic shocks.
Adapting to changing economic conditions requires investors to take a proactive approach — to not only maintain wealth but also to take advantage of short-term uncertainty and volatility to and grow their assets. Again, it’s important to stick with the plan your advice team has tailored for you; regardless of what’s happening in the economy or media. We utilize a combination of current income and cash for near term needs to ride out volatile periods with longer term growth investments to combat inflation. The overall allocation is specifically tailored to your personal needs, situation, and vision.
Pandemics: A Century of Health Crises
Pandemics have also been a recurring threat for more than a century. Various plagues, the Spanish flu of 1918, the HIV/AIDS pandemic, SARS, Ebola and the COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2019 are just some of the infectious diseases that have periodically surged to the forefront of global consciousness.
While advances in medicine and global cooperation have improved our ability to respond to pandemics, these health crises continue to disrupt societies and economies worldwide. The emergence of new infectious diseases, the interconnectedness of the modern world and challenges in coordinating a global response all contribute to the ongoing threat of pandemics. As long as human populations are vulnerable to infectious diseases, pandemics will remain a significant concern. As with the other issues this can present an opportunity for savvy investors.
The Endurance of the Big Three Issues
The “big three” — war in the Middle East, economic troubles at home and pandemics —are deeply interwoven with the complexities of our modern world, making them difficult to resolve completely. Despite concerted efforts to address them, they continue to shape the course of history and pose ongoing threats to global stability.
In the age of 24/7 news coverage and digital media, sensationalism often takes precedence over objective reporting. The media has an undeniable influence on public perception, and when it comes to covering the “big three” issues, it’s not uncommon for sensationalism to drive fear and panic. While these issues are not new, the way the media present them can contribute to public unease and anxiety. This also creates an opportunity.
A buy-and-hold strategy can result in quicker loss recuperation, than trying to time markets. By being proactive you may even benefit from the volatility.
For example if you had invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 on January 1, 2008. You might recall that in 2008, the S&P 500 lost 37 percent of its value. At the end of 2008, your investment would have been worth $6,300. If you had kept your money where it was, you would have recouped your losses by 2012, even if you made no additions to your original stock market investment. If you had chosen instead to reinvest that $6,300 in a savings account with a 3 percent interest rate, compounded monthly, it would have taken 16 years for you to recoup your losses and cross that $10,000 threshold. Had you been tactical you could have enjoyed tax benefits and grown you assets via the portfolio versus trying to time the market.
Our planning seeks to protect you from short-term volatility while guiding you to benefit from the uncertainty. We take a proactive approach based on your vision rather than market timing.
As we reflect on a century marked by the persistent challenges of war, economic instability, and pandemics, it is clear that our ability to adapt and innovate has been our greatest strength. The media would have us believe that “this time it’s different” and that the latest crisis is “breaking news” — but it’s not.
Those who panic will ultimately hurt themselves financially, and possibly emotionally, while those who have a plan and are steadfast can benefit. We are here for you and are always happy to answer any questions or concerns. Times of uncertainty can present an opportunity for longer term investors. We believe that is true today as it has been over the last 100 years.
We will continue to offer updates via video and our live events. You can access more information on these via our web site https://carverfinancialservices.com/.
Please reach out to me personally, or to any of our team, with questions or if we can otherwise be of service. We are here for you!
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Randy Carver, CRPC®, CDFA®, is the president and founder of Carver Financial Services, Inc., and is also a registered principal with Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Carver Financial Services, Inc., was established in 1990 with the vision of making people’s lives better — clients, team and community. With this mission, Carver Financial Services has grown to be one of the largest independent financial services offices in the country, managing $2.3 billion in assets for clients globally, as of March 2023. You can reach Randy directly at randy.carver@raymondjames.com and in the office at (440) 974-0808.
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Randy Carver, CRPC®, CDFA®, is the president and founder of Carver Financial Services, Inc., and is also a registered principal with Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Carver Financial Services, Inc., was established in 1990 with the vision of making people’s lives better — clients, team and community. With this mission, Carver Financial Services has grown to be one of the largest independent financial services offices in the country, managing $2.3 billion in assets for clients globally, as of March 2023. You can reach Randy directly at randy.carver@raymondjames.com and in the office at (440) 974-0808.
Any opinions are those of Randy Carver and not necessarily those of Raymond James.
This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.
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