March 2020
Barron’s names Randy Carver to its Top 1200 Financial Advisors List for 2020
March 25, 2020 – Barron’s Magazine again named Randy Carver as one of the top advisors in the Nation and one of Ohio’s top three best financial advisors. Randy has been recognized by Barron’s every year since 2008.
Rankings are based on data provided by the nation’s 4,000 most productive advisors. Factors included in the rankings: assets under management, revenue produced for the firm, regulatory record, quality of practice and philanthropic work. Investment performance isn’t an explicit component because not all advisors have audited results and because performance figures often are influenced more by clients’ risk tolerance than by an advisor’s investment-picking abilities. Barron’s listed their top 1,200 putting Randy in the top 4/10th of 1% of all advisors.
To see the full listing click here.
Carver Financial Services Inc. is an independent practice. Raymond James is not affiliated with Barron’s. Neither Raymond James nor any of its Financial Advisors have paid a fee in exchange for this recognition. This recognition is not indicative of future investment performance, is not an endorsement, and may not be representative of individual clients’ experience. Barron’s is a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Company, L.P. All rights reserved.
Fox 8 News
The Litany of Disaster: Pandemics, Panic and the Markets
Watch noted speaker Don Connelly discuss the Coronavirus, plus review how the pandemics and epidemics spanning the last 60 years have affected the markets.
Pandemics & Portfolios: Fear & Facts
We understand that market volatility, and uncertainty with the response to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) can be unsettling. We want to remind you that we are here for you, your family and your friends. Part of this is to provide resources to help you feel ready and safe in the days, weeks and months ahead. We will continue to provide resources via the internet, including our Coronavirus Covid-19 Resources Page and Recording of the March 12th Don Connelly event. As always, please reach out to us with any questions, concerns or if we can otherwise be of service.
There is a lot of information, and misinformation, floating around regarding the Coronavirus, the broad markets, and the economic outlook. This is a rapidly evolving situation. As always, we are here for you and your family and are happy to answer any questions and address any concerns.
Below we review some of the main questions people are asking us. Before we get into the details, our team wants to thank everyone for their kind words of support and well wishes.
Carver Financial Services, Inc. has been in business for 30 years and has weathered many storms by keeping our focus on the well-being of our clients, our team and our community. Our firm was founded with the vision of making lives better. One of the primary ways we do that is living by the mantra of Always Be Prepared—whether in our planning, our training or our mindset. In light of the recent developments around Coronavirus, the necessity for preparedness is clear. We are doing everything possible to provide information to help you feel ready and safe in the days, weeks and months ahead.
We will continue to reach out to you for your regular reviews. These may be done in person, or if you prefer not to come in person, we can do reviews via Skype, Zoom or phone. We are closely following all guidelines and recommendations laid forth by the Center for Disease Control (CDC), the World Health Organization (WHO) and other national and local government organizations to protect our employees and those who visit our office.
Our Personal Vision Planning® process includes holding cash for near-term needs. While this can lead to a portfolio underperforming the index when things go straight up, it can help lower volatility when things go down. We believe the current market environment is offering smart investors three potential opportunities to benefit, which we discuss below.
The Stock Market Is Up More Often than It Is Down
The volatility we are seeing is not unexpected, although the speed at which it has happened is. This is why we have worked with you to have fixed income and cash available to help balance your portfolio. Our Personal Vision Planning process takes into account market and portfolio corrections like the one we are experiencing now—even though we understand that the drop in values may be unsettling.
A market correction is often defined as a 10 percent pullback from a recent peak. A bear market is a period when the market falls by 20 percent or more. Yet a correction doesn’t necessarily mean a bear market is imminent. In fact, history shows us that selloffs are nothing out of the norm. Data from the Schwab Center for Financial Research show that there have been 22 market corrections since 1974, and only four of them—occurring in 1980, 1987, 2000 and 2007—eventually ended up as bear markets.
How the Current Volatility Compares to Past Situations
The recent market volatility is attributed to concern about the Coronavirus. Although we don’t know what the human or financial impact will be at this point, we can look at other recent epidemics and the longer-term impact they have had.
The 2009–10 flu pandemic, or Swine Flu, began on March 17, 2009, in Mexico. At that time, the United States was emerging from the 2008 financial crisis. The virus peaked in this country in October 2009, before officially ending on August 11, 2010. From the start of the virus to its finish, the Dow had risen more than 40 percent (First Trust chart).
March 9, 2020, was the eleventh anniversary of the crescendo of global panic that marked the bottom of the bear market of 2007–09. There are, however, stark differences between 2008–2009 and now. In 2008, there were serious challenges to our economy with the sub-prime loan crisis. Today the economy is showing some of the best numbers in more than 50 years, on everything from unemployment to corporate profits. The recent drop in oil prices will likely help today’s situation, as will the proactive steps the government is taking to bolster the economy.
Another big difference between now and 2008, is the prevalence of social media and the increased number of media outlets, private blogs, and social media, all of which are competing for attention. This causes a lot of dramatic and often incorrect information to be put out.
Look for the Current Opportunities
One upside to uncertainty is that it can create an opportunity. Here are four facts to consider:
- Markets move on perceptions and uncertainty in the short run, but on fundamentals in the longer-term. We believe that the fundamentals are very strong, and this will reflect in the valuations over the longer-term. As such, the current environment can be a good opportunity to explore if it fits your individual situation.
- The volatility we are seeing is not unexpected; that is why we have worked with you to have fixed income and cash on hand to help balance your portfolio. Our Personal Vision Planning process takes into account market and portfolio corrections like the one we are experiencing now. Therefore, we are not recommending any major adjustments.
- Market corrections may provide opportunities for investors, including an opportunity to rebalance or invest at lower valuations, to make tax swaps, to convert IRAs to Roth IRAs with less tax impact on the lower valuations, and to rebalance your portfolio, if appropriate.
- Although there is concern about a global slowdown due to the Coronavirus, we have seen a typical pattern with other epidemics, where markets dip and then rebound significantly within 12 months. While the past does not guarantee future results, it can be instructive.
We Must Respond to Uncertainty with Calmness
The common thread between the past and the present market volatility is uncertainty—we simply don’t know where, when or how these phenomena will play out. In our experience, markets can handle bad news, but uncertainty is the one thing in this world that markets hate and fear the most. We have no control over the uncertainty, but we can and should have perfect control over how we respond to it.
Part of what drives feelings of anxiety is lack of information. Because the Coronavirus is new, many questions remain about the illness it causes. The more people learn, the better they feel. We have filled-in some of the blanks, it seems, like who it affects and how it spreads. We know who is more vulnerable and who is less vulnerable.
There have been at least four precipitants of the current decline:
- The outbreak of a new strain of virus, the extent of which can’t be predicted
- The economic impact of that outbreak, which is equally unknown
- The onset of a price war in oil
- Uncertainty about the 2020 election, both for president and also for the House and Senate
When a danger or threat is approaching gradually, it tends to be more frightening than when it shows up all at once. The good news is that, for most people, the Coronavirus is generally mild, and its flu-like symptoms of fever and cough do not last long.
We will ride this out together and stay calm. The last thing in the world that long-term, goal-focused investors like us do when the whole world is selling is—you guessed it again—sell. We understand that sometimes the inclination is to ‘stop the bleeding’ or to ‘wait for it to get better’. Ultimately this can cause far more harm than good. If you have concerns, please reach out to us. We will contact you if we feel adjustments are needed.
We Are Here for You
As always, we welcome your questions around this issue or any other matters. While we expect continued volatility in the broader markets, we also know that missing just a few of the best days has a very negative impact on returns over time. It is impossible to time markets and so we encourage you to stick with your long-term plan, while we continue to rebalance and reallocate as necessary. The mainstream media, social media and sometimes our friends will continue to focus on the negative, short-term and often speculative information. The media’s role is to sell advertising and not to inform. We will continue to provide resources and information via our website, personal calls, and planning meetings.
Thank you, our clients and friends, for being the most important part of Carver Financial Services. We are here for you and look forward to speaking with you in the near future. We recognize that the uncertainty with the spread of the Coronavirus and the current market volatility and can be distressing to many. We are also happy to speak to your friends or family, without cost or obligation, if they have questions or concerns—whether or not they are clients. We are always stronger together and look forward to working through this current situation with you.
For more resources, please visit our Coronavirus Covid-19 Resources page.
The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Carver Financial Team, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.
Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow”, is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. Converting a traditional IRA into a Roth IRA has tax implications. Unless certain criteria are met, Roth IRA owners must be 59½ or older and have held the IRA for five years before tax-free withdrawals are permitted. Additionally, each converted amount may be subject to its own five-year holding period. Investors should consult a tax advisor before deciding to do a conversion.
The News-Herald
This Time It’s Different
After more than 30 years in the financial services industry, it is clear that the Media will always focus on the short-term, negative and sensational. 2020 is no different – the media would have you believe that we are facing new issues ranging from Coronavirus to the impact of social media.
Newsweek wrote a post-recession article that said:
“The economy is booming, and Americans revel in prosperity after bouncing back from a recession, although not everyone is participating. Advancements in technology are changing the way we live, and there is hope that the new century will bring even more progress. But anxiety lurks beneath the New Year’s optimism. Will these new technologies change the world beyond recognition? Has the environment been dangerously damaged? A global epidemic is raging, with no cure in sight. And in the business world, the public wavers about whether to admire or hate a tycoon who’s somehow gained control of one of the most important economic engines of the century.”
Sound familiar? Did you think the reporter was writing about social media and the Coronavirus? This article was actually written in December of 1899, 121 years ago! The business titan mentioned was John D. Rockefeller (not Donald Trump), the technology concerns that were discussed had to do with the Industrial Revolution, not social media and the internet. The “global epidemic” was Polio, not Coronavirus.
Sir John Templeton famously said, “The four most dangerous words for investors are ‘This Time It’s Different.’” Markets move up when people are investing and move down when there is a concern. Not only does the pattern, repeat but the types of events and concerns do as well – whether fear of a pandemic or concerns about new technology or immigration. The issues people worried about 121 years ago, and farther back, are not that different from those that people are concerned about today- technology, pandemics and even immigration. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
In addition to the concerns of the Polio pandemic, Immigration was also a concern in 1899. Many were concerned with the large influx of immigrants. The cities were rapidly filling up with settlers from Poland, Russia, Germany, Ireland and Italy and many viewed this as a threat.
Increased Volatility Is Likely
As we move toward the November 2020 election, we expect to see increased volatility in the broader markets, which is reflected in your portfolio. We have developed and refined a process that accounts for this volatility. Although many firms have moved to standard models, we continue to take a customized approach to your planning, so we are prepared for any expected needs you may have.
It’s important to note that as portfolios and the level of the broad indices have increased in size, relatively small changes reflect as larger dollar or point swings.
No doubt the media will focus on the larger point swings with apocalyptic headlines portending doom and gloom and that the changes may not be more than normal movements.
For example, on August 14, 2019, the headlines were dire:
- “Dow Plummets 800 Points on Worsening Global Recession Fears” (Fox Business)
- “Dow Plummets More Than 800 Points on Recession Red Flag” (New York Post)
- “Dow Tanks 800 Points in Worst Day of 2019 After Bond Market Sends Recession Warning” (CNBC)
Yet the drop was only about 3% – If we look at market corrections over the 90 years from 1928–2018 we see that corrections of 5% – 10% are very common:
- 5 percent—About every 2 months
- 10 percent—About every 8 months
- 20 percent—About every 30 months
(Source: DOW Jones/ Wikipedia)
The recent market volatility is attributed to concern about the Coronavirus. While we don’t know what the human or financial impact will be at this point, we can look at other more recent epidemics and the longer-term impact they have had.
While market dips can be disconcerting, they can also provide several opportunities for longer-term investors:
- Dips may provide the chance to add to investments or purchase new ones at lower prices.
- Dips may provide the opportunity to convert IRAs to Roths with less tax impact.
- Dips may allow for tax swaps to generate write-offs while remaining invested.
Politics as Usual
We saw an increased onslaught of media attention for the 2018 midterm election. We expect to continue to see this, with regard to politics, in general, this year, with a continuation of polarized and partisan reporting.
We believe the economy is strong, as reflected by record-low unemployment, high corporate profits, and growth of the economy.
We are often asked what we feel the markets will do. We believe this may not be the right question. A more appropriate question is, “How will what the markets are doing affect me?” With proper planning, the month-to-month swings in broader markets, regardless of how extreme, should not impact your ability to live the life you want.
Keep Your Eye on the Prize — Your Dream for the Future
You have heard me say, “Never has the pace of change been this fast, and never will be it be this slow again.” We are being inundated with information and are required to make more decisions than ever as we face new challenges, both financially and personally. When our firm was founded 30 years ago, a large part of what we did was provide access to information. Now a large part of what we do is sort through massive amounts of information and provide access to what is relevant to you.
Our team is here to help you achieve your personal vision, while simplifying your life. As always, we are here to discuss any questions, concerns or ideas you may have.
We believe in a proactive approach to wealth management, tax planning and helping you achieve your vision. Although we do not have a crystal ball about the markets—no one does—we plan based on your personal goals and vision. We call this Personal Vision Planning®. This process takes into account the type of volatility we are experiencing and expect in the coming months.
We will continue to face a number of challenges in the future, including a more complex tax and investment-planning climate, potentially higher interest rates, inflation, pandemics, to name just a few. Regardless of what happens, we stand by the simple vision on which our firm was founded in 1990: making people’s lives better. Although much has changed with the world, the economy and investments, our commitment to this important goal remains steadfast.
Please contact our team whenever we may be of service to you, your family or your friends. We look forward to speaking with you.
This information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of the professionals at Carver Financial Services, Inc., and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The performance shown is not indicative of any particular investment. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal.
2020 Carver Financial Annual Resource Breakfast
Watch the entire presentation from the 24th Annual Carver Financial Resource Breakfast. Learn more about what resources are available for you and your family from Carver Financial and Raymond James. Plus, hear our perspective on current events, as well as a wealth of information on resources, cybersecurity, new technology and much more.
Randy Carver named to Forbes 2020 Best-in-State List of Top Wealth Advisors
January 21, 2020 – Randy Carver, RJFS Financial Advisor was recognized on Forbes list of Best-In-State Wealth Advisors, as one of the top advisors in Ohio. There were more than 32,000 nominations received nationwide. Randy Carver was ranked #4 out of the 120 recognized in Ohio. This is the fourth year in a row that Randy has been included on this prestigious list of top wealth advisors from national, regional and independent firms.
Click here to view the profile on the Forbes list.
The Forbes ranking of Best-In-State Wealth Advisors, developed by SHOOK Research is based on an algorithm of qualitative criteria and quantitative data. Those advisors that are considered have a minimum of 7 years of experience, and the algorithm weighs factors like revenue trends, AUM, compliance records, industry experience and those that encompass best practices in their practices and approach to working with clients. Portfolio performance is not a criteria due to varying client objectives and lack of audited data. Out of 32,000 advisors nominated by their firms, more than 4,000 received the award. This ranking is not indicative of an advisor’s future performance, is not an endorsement, and may not be representative of individual clients’ experience. Neither Raymond James nor any of its Financial Advisors or RIA firms pay a fee in exchange for this award/rating. Raymond James is not affiliated with Forbes or Shook Research, LLC.